With the new House and Senate Republican majorities officially sworn in, some GOP lawmakers are worried that Republicans’ slim edge in the House of Representatives will make it exceedingly difficult to get President-elect Donald Trump’s legislative priorities through Congress.
In recent interviews with Politico, several Republican senators were pessimistic that they could follow through on Trump’s biggest campaign promises like providing billions more in funding for immigration enforcement, an extension of the 2017 tax cuts (that overwhelmingly benefited the richest Americans) and ramping up domestic oil production. Sen. Markwayne Mullin (R-Okla.) told the outlet that cramming two major priorities into one bill may be too tall of an order.
“Whatever they can send to us, we can pass,” Mullin said. “I think it’s going to be very difficult for the House to deliver two things, though, but if they can, wonderful.”
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Under current Senate rules, the chamber needs 60 votes in order to overcome a filibuster from any single member. This makes it virtually impossible to pass any bill through the chamber without broad bipartisan support, meaning the current 53-seat Republican Senate majority still wouldn’t be enough on its own to pass legislation.
But under the budget reconciliation process (which is only limited to bills directly pertaining to budgetary matters), the Senate can pass a bill with just 51 votes, which can include 50 senators and a tie-breaking vote from the vice president. Trump has signaled that he plans to move bills through the House first, with the Senate then sending bills to his desk, saying “the question is whether or not we do the two bills or one bill.”
One unnamed Republican lobbyist previously expressed worry that Republicans would be able to get the tax cut extension across the finish line before they expire in December of 2025. The extension is projected to cost roughly $4.6 trillion over 10 years, and the lobbyist doubted that lawmakers would have the wherewithal to endure another bitter legislative fight right after an expected battle over immigration reform – which new Senate Majority Leader John Thune (R-S.D.) has indicated would be the first priority for the incoming Trump administration.
Sen. Kevin Cramer (R-N.D.) told Politico that whip counts are “more complicated” in the House, especially if Reps. Elise Stefanik (R-N.Y.) and Mike Waltz (R-Fla.) end up joining the Trump administration as United Nations ambassador and National Security Advisor, respectively. Until those seats are filled via special election, House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.) will only have a one-seat majority to work with.
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“The House is afraid they can’t get two passed,” Senate Majority Whip John Barrasso (R-Wyo.) told Politico.
Several House Republicans have already communicated to Johnson that their support of his speakership is contingent on several key demands: Chief among them is Johnson not pushing for any additional federal spending without offsetting spending cuts, and adamant opposition to raising the federal debt ceiling (which is primarily meant to guarantee U.S. Treasury securities and doesn’t require any new federal spending).
Johnson was barely elected speaker last week with the bare-minimum 218 votes, after cajoling several Republican opponents at the last minute. Notably, Republicans kept a rule in place allowing for a sole member to file a “motion to vacate” a sitting speaker, which is what ousted former House Speaker Kevin McCarthy (R-Calif.) in 2023. Rep. Andy Ogles (R-Tenn.) referred to the rule as necessary accountability for a speaker should they fail to uphold promises to members of the conference.
Click here to read Politico’s article in its entirety.
READ MORE: ‘Break even more arms’: GOP lobbyist not hopeful Trump can ram through tax cut extension
